The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, just two months old, has been shaky for some time. But that was thoroughly shattered by Israel’s bombardment of Gaza overnight. Why now?
Why did Israel return to war?
The Israeli government has given different reasons.
Overnight, Israel’s defense minister Israel Katz said that the attacks were “due to Hamas’ refusal to release the hostages and threats to harm IDF soldiers and Israeli communities.” If that sounds like the same reason Israel has given for attacking Gaza since October 7, 2023, that’s because it is. Israel’s war goals in Gaza are to return the remaining hostages taken by Hamas and destroy Hamas’ governing and military capabilities.
Later Tuesday, Israel’s foreign ministry spokesperson said that the attacks were because “Hamas rejected two concrete mediation proposals presented by the US president’s envoy, Steve Witkoff.” More on that in a moment.
An Israeli official said Israel’s airstrikes in Gaza are the first phase in a series of escalatory military actions aimed at pressuring Hamas into releasing more hostages, marking a return to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s view that military pressure is the most effective way to secure the release of hostages.
Israeli domestic politics is a big factor.
The far-right in Israel never liked the Gaza ceasefire, because they see it as a capitulation to Hamas. They want all Palestinians to leave Gaza, and for Israel to reestablish the settlements it evacuated in 2005.
Netanyahu needs that faction in order to govern. One far-right minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, quit the government in protest of the ceasefire. Another, Bezalel Smotrich, said he would leave if Israel didn’t return to war. That would have ripped apart Netanyahu’s government coalition.
But on Tuesday, Ben-Gvir’s party – Jewish Power – announced that it would rejoin the government. That’s a huge political victory for Netanyahu and the stability of his coalition.
The return of conflict in Gaza will also distract from Netanyahu’s desire to fire the head or Israel’s international security agency, Shin Bet. That decision, announced on Sunday, has drawn calls for massive protests.
Both Smotrich and Ben-Givr think that Israel has been too timid in conducting the war.
“This is a phased operation that we have planned and built in recent weeks since the new IDF Chief of Staff took office,” Smotrich said on Tuesday. “And with God’s help, it will look completely different from what has been done so far.”
What happened to ceasefire talks?
Israel and Hamas started a ceasefire on January 19. A first phase was supposed to last 42 days. Hamas has made clear it wants to stick with that agreement.
Under the terms of that second phase, Israel would have to withdraw entirely from Gaza and commit to a permanent end of the war. In exchange, Hamas would release all living hostages.
Israel has made clear it wants new terms. It wanted Hamas to continue releasing hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners – but without any commitment to end the war or withdraw its military.
The two sides were meant to discuss a second phase starting February 3, but the Israeli government ignored that deadline.
Breaking with decades of tradition, the US started talking directly with Hamas, which it considers a terrorist organization. And Israel has sent negotiating teams to Qatar and Egypt, as recently as Sunday, “in an effort to advance the negotiations.”
Israel says that US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff proposed a monthlong extension of the ceasefire through Ramadan and then Passover in late April – but without any of the commitments they made in January. Hamas immediately rejected that plan, saying that Netanyahu and his government were carrying out “a blatant coup against the ceasefire deal” that had already been agreed.
It’s been clear that the two sides are oceans apart.
Hamas offered last week to release the American-Israeli soldier Edan Alexander, along with the bodies of four other dual nationals – presumably four dead American-Israelis. In exchange, they said, Israel abide by “the three-phase ceasefire deal signed by all parties on January 17, 2025.”
Israel called that offer “psychological warfare.”
Has the war resumed in full?
The Israeli military has given very little detail about its operation. Their first announcement said they were carrying out “extensive strikes on terror targets belonging to the Hamas terrorist organization in the Gaza Strip.”
Later in the day Tuesday, the military ordered Palestinians in large swaths of Gaza, kilometers from the border with Israel, to leave their homes.
That has given rise to speculation that Israel may be preparing a renewed ground invasion – and may even try to occupy urban centers in Gaza, something it has not done until now.
After the ceasefire went into effect on January 19, Israel withdrew its troops to Gaza’s borders – with Egypt to the south, and with Israel to the north and east.
Israel is unlikely to stop its escalating military offensive without a deal to release additional hostages, determined to force Hamas to negotiate under fire.
Israel has a plan to gradually ramp up its military operations in Gaza, the Israeli official said, but it remains unclear how soon Israel could send ground troops into combat in Gaza once again.
On the other hand, Hamas and its allies – which have killed hundreds of Israeli soldiers in Gaza since October 7, 2023 – appear to so far be committed to the terms of the existing ceasefire, for now.
Israel has claimed a few times since January 19 that rockets from Gaza had been launched, but well within the territory. But they have not provided evidence for that, and Hamas has not launched rockets into Israel for the two months of the truce.
What does this mean for Gazans?
It is devastating.
Tuesday is already the deadliest single day in Gaza for well over a year – since November 7, 2023, when 548 Palestinians were killed.
It has been more than two weeks since Israel blocked all humanitarian aid from entering Gaza – a response, it said, to Hamas’ refusal to agree to new Israeli terms for the truce. War will exacerbate that suffering.
Already on Tuesday, masses of Palestinians have been seen once again on the move, ordered by the military to take what little they have and leave areas deemed unsafe.
“Don’t the Israelis have any promises they are committed to? It was a terrifying night,” he said. “Only God is merciful. There are still two children under the rubble – one 26 years old and the other 5. We cannot retrieve them.”
The Israeli military has killed just under 49,000 Palestinians in Gaza since Hamas’ October 7 attack – the majority of them civilians – according to the health ministry there.
“Fueling ‘hell on earth’ by resuming the war will only bring more despair & suffering,” the UN’s top official on Palestinian affairs, Philippe Lazzarini, said on Tuesday.
What does this mean for the hostages?
It is a huge blow. There are still 59 hostages in Gaza, of whom 24 are believed to be alive.
The families of those still held are outraged.
“The Israeli government chose to give up on the hostages,” the Hostages and Missing Families Forum said in a statement. “We are shocked, angry, and terrified by the deliberate dismantling of the process to return our loved ones from the terrible captivity of Hamas.”
What role did the US play?
Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said Monday that “the Trump administration and the White House were consulted by the Israelis on their attacks in Gaza.”
US President Donald Trump took credit for the ceasefire that began just before he took office, and his aides played a big role in pushing Netanyahu to accept it.
But he has also made clear that he would be supportive of Israel relaunching the war.
“I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say,” he said in a statement earlier this month. “RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW, OR THERE WILL BE HELL TO PAY LATER!”
Jeremy Diamond contributed to this report.